Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only two C-class events
occurred during the period. The largest event was an optically
uncorrelated C7 flare at 28/1353 UTC. The most magnetically complex
region on the disk, 9543 (S23W89) will rotate over the western limb
during the next day. The rest of the regions were unremarkable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with a single period
of unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2
MeV flux can be expected to reach moderate to high levels during the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 116 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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