Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare. Although there are
thirteen numbered regions on the disk, none of them show any
outstanding complexity. Region 9539 (S19W58), which has been the
most active and complex region for the last 5 days, decayed
dramatically. New Regions 9547 (S16W22), 9548 (N17E50), 9549
(S04E57), and 9550 (N08E38) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with occasional unsettled conditions
at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 143 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/010-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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