Viewing archive of Friday, 13 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at very low conditions. Regions 9533
(S09W26) and 9539 (S19E11) produced sporadic minor activity during
the period. Two new regions were numbered: 9540 (N13E42) and 9541
(N16E69). Overall, the sun was mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated
active conditions may be possible, starting on the third day, due to
a potentially favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 133 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 008/010-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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