Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region
9531 (S06E19) produced several C-class flares, the largest being a
C3/Sf at 08/1619 UTC. This region has emerged rapidly over the past
24 hours, presently comprised of 13 spots in a Dao beta-gamma
configuration. The second largest event of the day, an optically
uncorrelated C2 flare at 08/1141 UTC, appears per SOHO/EIT imagery
to have originated from Region 9530 (S20W52). Region 9532 (N09W46)
was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9531 is a likely source of additional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/0600-0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods may also occur due to transient fluctuations
in the IMF and moderate elevations of solar wind speed.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 126 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 130/140/145 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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