Viewing archive of Monday, 25 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The most active
regions were 9503 (N16W86) and 9517 (S15W59). Region 9503 produced
the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf at 25/0027 UTC. Newly
numbered Region 9517 produced two C1 flares during the period.
Regions 9512 (S24W23) and 9513 (N22E31) showed a continued increase
in spot count but have yet to produce any significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions during the first day
of the period. Active conditions can be expected starting on the
second day of the period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole
and its resulting high speed stream impacting earth. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux can be expected to reach high levels during
the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 182 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 008/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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