Viewing archive of Monday, 25 June 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The most active regions were 9503 (N16W86) and 9517 (S15W59). Region 9503 produced the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf at 25/0027 UTC. Newly numbered Region 9517 produced two C1 flares during the period. Regions 9512 (S24W23) and 9513 (N22E31) showed a continued increase in spot count but have yet to produce any significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions during the first day of the period. Active conditions can be expected starting on the second day of the period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole and its resulting high speed stream impacting earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux can be expected to reach high levels during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M40%30%30%
Class X05%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 182
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  008/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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