Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated,
optically uncorrelated, low-level C-class x-ray flares occurred. An
optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity
650 km/sec) occurred at 19/0335 UTC. Regions 9503 (N15W07) and 9506
(N18E20) each possessed a minor degree of magnetic complexity, but
were stable through the period. The remaining regions were
simply-structured and stable. New Region 9509 (S10W03) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods early on the first day.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 195 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 025/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 010/012-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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