Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels. Newly numbered
Region 9502 (S26E58) produced an M7/1n flare and CME at 13/1142Z. An
M2/Sf flare was also observed earlier in the period from this
region. Limb proximity still inhibits a thorough analysis, but the
region appears to be a relatively small, moderately complex
beta-gamma spot group. Region 9489 (N20W55) produced a number of
C-class flares including a C3 with Type II sweep (450 km/s) at
13/0827Z, a C9/Sf with Type II (680 km/s) at 13/1628Z, and an
impulsive C7/Sf at 13/1957Z. New Regions 9503 (N13E68), and 9504
(N06E76) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9502 and 9589.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Occasional active periods
were observed during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active period are again likely at higher latitudes during local
nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 181 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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