Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 9445 (N25W67) produced both of today's C1/Sf flares, the first at 0603 UTC and the second at 0853 UTC. The other active regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A new region emerged at S08W28 and was assigned as Region 9453.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low during the next three days. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9445.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Enhanced solar wind velocity, and periods of sustained southward solar wind magnetic field orientation led to an increase in geomagnetic activity. The plasma and field parameters appear to be consistent with the passage of an interplanetary transient. Minor storm periods were observed from 0000-0600 UTC, and active conditions dominated most of the remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC ended at 08/1935 UTC. The peak of the event was 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels briefly during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24 hours as the current disturbance is likely to persist. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected to prevail during the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M20%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 129
  Predicted   10 May-12 May  125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        09 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  016/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  028/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

All times in UTC

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