Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
9445 (N25W67) produced both of today's C1/Sf flares, the first at
0603 UTC and the second at 0853 UTC. The other active regions on the
disk were quiet and stable. A new region emerged at S08W28 and was
assigned as Region 9453.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low during the next three days. There is a slight
chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9445.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Enhanced solar wind velocity, and periods
of sustained southward solar wind magnetic field orientation led to
an increase in geomagnetic activity. The plasma and field parameters
appear to be consistent with the passage of an interplanetary
transient. Minor storm periods were observed from 0000-0600 UTC, and
active conditions dominated most of the remainder of the day. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC ended at
08/1935 UTC. The peak of the event was 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels briefly
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours as the current disturbance is likely to persist. Predominantly
unsettled levels are expected to prevail during the second and third
days.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 129 Predicted 10 May-12 May 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 09 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 016/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 028/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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