Viewing archive of Monday, 2 April 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. A pair of Class X flares occurred at 02/1004 UTC and 02/1058 UTC. The first was in Region 9393, now at N16W69. The second was likely in Region 9393 but it may have been near the southeast limb. A coronal mass ejection extending 180 degrees in longitude along the west limb occurred more-or-less in conjunction with the x-ray events. Region 9393 is little changed in appearance as it begins to rotate from view over the limb although its apparent area is decreasing. Sunspots have rotated into view at S21E58 (Region 9414) but so far the spots appear to be simply structured. As the region becomes more visible, further information about its structure will be available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. The possibility of major flares remains high in Region 9393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly active. A very small proton enhancement of >10 MeV and >100 MeV particles occurred beginning at about 02/1000 UTC. Fluxes have become constant at less than event thresholds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The possibility remains of a proton event if further major events occur in Region 9393
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M80%75%75%
Class X35%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 228
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  220/210/200
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  026/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  030/025-035/040-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active28%28%35%
Minor storm18%15%12%
Major-severe storm08%08%08%
B. High Latitudes
Active28%28%28%
Minor storm18%25%20%
Major-severe storm08%08%08%

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