Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A Class M5 event
began at 01/1055 UT. It has been associated with energetic
post-flare type loops at the east limb near SE20. Coronal mass
ejections have been numerous over the southeast limb, with the most
dynamic occurring in temporal association with the Class M5 flare.
The CME appeared to clear the LASCO field of view in half the time
typical CME's require and appeared to extend from far south of the
equator to very far north. Active Region 9393 (N15 W57) has
changed little. It produced an impulsive Class M4 X-ray event
beginning at 01/1943 UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Region 9393 (N15 W57) remains a probable source
of Class M and Class X Flares. Other regions with high flare
potential among the dozen or so spotted active regions now visible
include Region 9408 (S10 W18), 9397 (S10 W35), and 9401 (N20 W40).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field declined to quiet levels by 01/0900 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a small chance of a minor
storm. An energetic event in Region 9393 is likely to produce a
prompt solar proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 258 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 235/225/205 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 115/155 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 027/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 020/035-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Minor storm | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Major-severe storm | 17% | 12% | 08% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Minor storm | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Major-severe storm | 12% | 10% | 08% |
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