Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Three M-class and two C9
events occurred during the period. The largest events were an M2/2N
from Region 9393 (N20E39) and an M2/1N from new Region 9401
(N22E55). Overall, activity increased noticeably during the
reporting period. Five new regions were numbered: 9398 (N20W10),
9399 (S30W09), 9400 (N11E20), 9401 (N22E55), and 9402 (N17E15).
Several different regions produced activity during the day and it
appears that the sun is entering into a highly active period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance of isolated event class events being
produced from several of the different active regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single,
isolated, mid-latitude period of active conditions occurring at
25/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, barring an Earth-directed CME.
Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 217 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 006/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/018-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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