Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Three M-class and two C9 events occurred during the period. The largest events were an M2/2N from Region 9393 (N20E39) and an M2/1N from new Region 9401 (N22E55). Overall, activity increased noticeably during the reporting period. Five new regions were numbered: 9398 (N20W10), 9399 (S30W09), 9400 (N11E20), 9401 (N22E55), and 9402 (N17E15). Several different regions produced activity during the day and it appears that the sun is entering into a highly active period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance of isolated event class events being produced from several of the different active regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single, isolated, mid-latitude period of active conditions occurring at 25/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, barring an Earth-directed CME. Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 217
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  220/220/220
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  006/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/018-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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