Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 March 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Overall, activity increased considerably during the period. Two M-class events were reported. An M1/Sf flare with an accompanying Type II radio sweep occurred at 24/0138 UTC from Region 9376 (S13W90) as it was rotating over the western limb. Region 9390 (N15E19) produced a long duration M1/2F event at 24/1955 UTC. Other active regions of note were 9389 (S13E26), 9393 (N20E54), and 9397 (S09E76). Four new regions were numbered: 9394 (N09E48), 9395 (S12E63), 9396 (S06W04), and 9397. The Pentiction 10.7 cm Flux reading of 219 was flare enhanced by the M1/2F long duration event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9389, 9390, and 9393 could produce isolated major event level flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 219
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  017/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  012/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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