Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class X-ray events
occurred with the highest being a C6/Sf produced by Region 9354
(S08W32) at 21/1427Z. Region 9354 has stayed about the same in size
and number of spots but has increased in magnetic complexity since
yesterday. New Region 9360 (S11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, the is a chance for an isolated M-class event from either
Region 9354 or Region 9359 (N10E64).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A non-Earth directed
CME occurred yesterday behind the NE limb.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 144 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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