Viewing archive of Friday, 16 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Two new regions were numbered,
9353 (S23E17) and 9354 (S09E34). A full-halo CME was observed by the
SOHO/LASCO spacecraft starting at 15/1430 UTC. The origin of this
activity is thought to be close to but not connected to Region 9350
(N18E16 at 15/2400 UTC).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The expected arrival of the CME
described in section IA may produce isolated active periods,
possibly starting late on the first day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 130 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/010-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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