Viewing archive of Friday, 16 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Two new regions were numbered, 9353 (S23E17) and 9354 (S09E34). A full-halo CME was observed by the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft starting at 15/1430 UTC. The origin of this activity is thought to be close to but not connected to Region 9350 (N18E16 at 15/2400 UTC).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The expected arrival of the CME described in section IA may produce isolated active periods, possibly starting late on the first day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 130
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/010-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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