Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two new regions were
numbered, 9351 (S21W42) and 9352 (S23E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels for most
of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 135 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/015-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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