Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Two new regions were numbered, 9351 (S21W42) and 9352 (S23E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels for most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 135
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/015-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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