Viewing archive of Friday, 9 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A number of small C-class flares occurred, including a C1/Sf at 09/1727 UTC in Region 9335 (N09W13). This sunspot group continues to decay slowly. Region 9338 (S20W02) also flared and exhibited frequent plage fluctuations. This area is experiencing rapid emergence of new flux and the consequent growth in sunspot size and complexity. New Regions 9346 (N18W54) and 9347 (N04E66) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible from several of the active regions currently on the visible disk but most likely in Regions 9335 and 9338. The number of new regions, recent activity near the east limb, and current dynamics in the visible regions suggest a general trend towards an increase in solar activity over the next few days. However, a significant increase, to high levels or above, is not expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicate that plasma and field parameters remain at nominal levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M 10%15%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 162
  Predicted    10 Feb-12 Feb  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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