Viewing archive of Friday, 9 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A number of small C-class
flares occurred, including a C1/Sf at 09/1727 UTC in Region 9335
(N09W13). This sunspot group continues to decay slowly. Region 9338
(S20W02) also flared and exhibited frequent plage fluctuations. This
area is experiencing rapid emergence of new flux and the consequent
growth in sunspot size and complexity. New Regions 9346 (N18W54) and
9347 (N04E66) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from several of the active regions
currently on the visible disk but most likely in Regions 9335 and
9338. The number of new regions, recent activity near the east
limb, and current dynamics in the visible regions suggest a general
trend towards an increase in solar activity over the next few days.
However, a significant increase, to high levels or above, is not
expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations
from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicate that plasma and field
parameters remain at nominal levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 162 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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