Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC. Three
new regions were numbered today: 9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and
9332 (N08E24). Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint
C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb. Regions
9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in
Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to
produce significant flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly
numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51),
which remains the largest active region on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC. The greater-than-10 MeV
proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at
30/0035 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated
shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28.
Originating event characteristics, associated proton event,
interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument,
and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock
passage at earth within the next day or so. Active and isolated
minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field
thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1. Diminished activity
to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 160 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/160 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 020/015-012/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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