Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 January 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC. Three new regions were numbered today: 9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and 9332 (N08E24). Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb. Regions 9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to produce significant flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51), which remains the largest active region on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC. The greater-than-10 MeV proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at 30/0035 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28. Originating event characteristics, associated proton event, interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument, and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock passage at earth within the next day or so. Active and isolated minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1. Diminished activity to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 160
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  160/155/160
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  016/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  020/015-012/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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