Viewing archive of Monday, 29 January 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 9329 (S10E50) produced the only notable activity of the day, a C5/Sf event at 29/1540 UTC. Lesser, uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred throughout the period. Region 9321 (S03W57) remains the largest region on the disk, though somewhat reduced in white light area since yesterday, currently in an Eai Beta configuration. Other active regions are little changed from yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance of isolated moderate-level activity possible from Region 9321, or Region 9313 (S04W79) as it rotates behind the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storming was observed at Boulder during 29/0000-0300 UTC, followed by a single active period thereafter. The greater-than-10 MeV proton event which began last period has persisted throughout the day, reaching a maximum flux value of 49 pfu at 29/0655 UTC. An associated polar cap absorption event was reported for the period of 29/0649-1600 UTC, with maximum absorption of 1.9 decibles on the Thule 30Mhz riometer. The proton event remains in progress at the end of period, with a value of about 12 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels during the first day. Shock arrival from the CME activity of 28 January is expected to arrive on mid-to-late day one, with isolated minor storming possible through day two. Activity is expected to taper off to mainly unsettled levels by day three. The proton event currently in progress is expected to end during day one.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M45%40%35%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 165
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  013/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  015/015-020/018-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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