Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. An increase in flare production and x-ray background began
yesterday around 1800Z, leading to frequent C-class flares and one
M-class flare during the past 24 hours. Today's largest event was an
M1/2f at 1447Z from Region 9311 (N06W76). Most of the new activity
was from Region 9311 although Region 9313 (S07W12) and Region 9321
(S06E31) also contributed to some of the activity. Regions 9313 and
9321 appear to be growing slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate tomorrow, with a fair-to-good chance for another M-class
event from Region 9311. A decrease in activity and background
levels is anticipated on the second and third days, however,
with the departure of Region 9311 from the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from
1200-1500Z. Solar wind signatures showed characteristics of swept up
flow, and perhaps a portion of transient flow, but there was no
indication of passing through the main part of the driver. Greater
than 10 MeV protons remained enhanced but were beginning to decline
near day's end.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours. A decrease to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and
third days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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