Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class flares
were observed. Region 9289 (S07E16) retains large white light area
coverage and some mixture of magnetic polarities, but was generally
stable. Brightness fluctuations and subflare rates have decreased.
Remaining regions were stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Though relatively quiet, Region 9289 has potential for
an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet levels through day two. Unsettled
conditions are likely by day three as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 170 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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