Viewing archive of Friday, 29 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9169 (N12W77)
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY, DECREASING IN BOTH AREA AND SPOTS.
REGIONS 9173 (S12E13) AND 9176 (S09E45) DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9176 IS NOW A BETA SPOT GROUP WITH
APPROXIMATELY 16 SPOTS COVERING 410 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MINOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 SEP 192 Predicted 30 SEP-02 OCT 185/175/170 90 Day Mean 29 SEP 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP 005/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT 008/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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