Viewing archive of Friday, 29 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9169 (N12W77) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY, DECREASING IN BOTH AREA AND SPOTS. REGIONS 9173 (S12E13) AND 9176 (S09E45) DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9176 IS NOW A BETA SPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 16 SPOTS COVERING 410 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MINOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
Class M50%50%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 SEP 192
  Predicted   30 SEP-02 OCT  185/175/170
  90 Day Mean        29 SEP 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  008/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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