Viewing archive of Monday, 18 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 18 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 9165 (N14W40), 9166 (S14E24), AND 9167 (N12E57). DECAY IN REGION 9165 HAS SLOWED AND THE AREA RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 9166 CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY AND IS PRESENTLY AN E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH SOME MIXED POLARITIES. NEW REGION 9169 (N08E70) IS A LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB, AND IS ABUTTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REGION 9167. SO FAR IT HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLARES BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A CAPABLE REGION; HOWEVER, ITS LIMB PROXIMITY MAKES ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9165, 9166, 9167, AND 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 17/2100 UTC TO 18/0300 UTC. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM, PUNCTUATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CME MATERIAL. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS. THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND ANOTHER CME IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EITHER LATE ON SEP 18 OR EARLY ON SEP 19.
III. Event Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 SEP 204
  Predicted   19 SEP-21 SEP  210/215/220
  90 Day Mean        18 SEP 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP  032/040
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP  035/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP  040/055-030/040-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm60%50%35%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm60%50%35%
COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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