Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED TODAY. REGION 9125 (N25W11) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND
MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX OF THE 13 SPOTTED REGIONS. HOWEVER, THIS
REGION ONLY PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT
APPROXIMATELY 16/1330UT AND REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 AUG 186 Predicted 17 AUG-19 AUG 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 16 AUG 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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