Viewing archive of Friday, 11 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, WITH FIVE REGIONS PARTICIPATING. REGION 9114 (N11W45) IS STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 9126 (N06W41) AND 9127 (S40E20) EACH HAD SUBFLARES. REGIONS 9124 (S14E52) AND 9125 (N25E55) WERE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY SOUTHWARD IMF LASTING MORE THAN 24 HOURS FUELED THE DISTURBANCE. THE BZ MAGNITUDE WAS NEARLY CONSTANT NEAR 10 NT. AT APPROXIMATELY 1800Z, A SHOCK PASSED ACE AND ENDED THE NEAR STEADY-STATE OF THE SOLAR WIND. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND DENSITY WERE QUITE AVERAGE PRIOR TO THE SHOCK, BUT ATTAINED VALUES NEAR 600 KM/S, AND 10 P/CC AFTER. THIS TRANSIENT MAY BE RELATED TO THE HALO CME OF 09 AUGUST. A SATELLITE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV BEGAN AT 1650Z. THIS VERY SMALL EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 17 PFU AT 1655Z AND ENDED AT 1740Z. A SMALL PCA OF APPROXIMATELY 2.0 DB OCCURRED AT THULE CONCURRENT WITH THE PROTON EVENT. THE SOLAR SOURCE OF THE PARTICLES IS AS YET UNDETERMINED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S SHOCK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRE-EXISTING AND STILL CONTINUING SOUTHWARD IMF, SHOULD FURTHER EXTEND THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. LOCAL NIGHTTIMES SHOULD SEE THE PERIODS OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 AUG to 14 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 AUG 187
  Predicted   12 AUG-14 AUG  195/200/205
  90 Day Mean        11 AUG 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 AUG  016/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  050/060
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  020/025-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 AUG to 14 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm50%50%50%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm60%60%60%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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