Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 FLARE AT 30/1210Z. SOHO/EIT IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION 9107 (S18E56) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE. A C4/SF FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9105 (N16E40) AT 30/1314Z, AND REGION 9103 (N11W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES WITHOUT NOTABLE X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. SOME SMALLER C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED DURING THE DAY, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MODERATE-LEVEL ACTIVITY BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO RETURNING REGIONS EXPECTED ON THE EAST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OF LOCAL SUBSTORMING OBSERVED IN THE NIGHTTIME SECTOR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF ACTIVE PERIODS AND ISOLATED MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES FROM INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED ON DAY TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 31 JUL to 02 AUG
Class M20%20%25%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 JUL 150
  Predicted   31 JUL-02 AUG  150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        30 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL  017/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG  008/008-012/018-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 JUL to 02 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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