Viewing archive of Friday, 28 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9090 (N15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS FLARE, AN M1/SF AT 27/2342Z. THE REGION WAS QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IT ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9103 (N10E03) SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION 9097 (N09W55), CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, CONTINUED TO DECAY QUIETLY. CLOSER ANALYSIS OF YESTERDAY'S HALO CME USING AVAILABLE EIT AND H-ALPHA DATA INDICATE THAT THE TRANSIENT ORIGINATED FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, WITH REGIONS 9097 AND 9103 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME DISTURBED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TRANSIENT MATERIAL FROM THE CME OF 25 JULY. THE FIRST INDICATION OF THE TRANSIENT WAS A SHOCK AT ACE AT 0543Z, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 0635Z (MEASURING 41 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER). THE SHOCK WAS FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MODERATELY SOUTHWARD BZ FIELDS (-5 TO -15 NT) UNTIL 1318Z WHEN BZ INTENSIFIED TO STRONGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS (-15 TO -20 NT). MINOR STORM LEVELS (ESTIMATED KP'S OF 5) WERE SUSTAINED FOR 12 HOURS FROM 0600-1800Z. A GREATER THAN 10 PFU PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV WAS OBSERVED: PARTICLE FLUXES BEGAN TO RISE SLOWLY AFTER 0200Z AND ATTAINED THRESHOLD AT 1050Z. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WAS 18 PFU AT 1130Z AND THE EVENT FELL BELOW THRESHOLD AT 1310Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS. NIGHTTIME SECTORS IN PARTICULAR MAY EXPERIENCE EFFECTS OF LOCAL SUBSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 JUL 158
  Predicted   29 JUL-31 JUL  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        28 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  020/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm25%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm25%05%05%

All times in UTC

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