Viewing archive of Monday, 24 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SOHO LASCO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LONGER DURATION FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 22 JULY AT 1117Z. THE SAME EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A SMALL SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ON 22 JULY. LASCO ALSO REPORTED A PARTIAL HALO ON 23 JULY, POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FILAMENT ERUPTION IN REGION 9097, NOW AT N07E00. REGION 9097 REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE AND COMPLEX REGION, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND TOWARD SIMPLIFICATION AND LOWER LEVELS OF ACTIVITY IN ALMOST ALL REGIONS. A LARGE CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AT ABOUT N30 TO N40. ANOTHER SMALLER HOLE IS VISIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTH-EASTWARD FROM NEAR REGION 9097 TO ABOUT S15 AND FROM CENTRAL MERIDIAN EASTWARD FOR ABOUT,15 DEGREES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH A DECLINING CHANCE OF MORE ENERGETIC ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. EFFECTS OF THE CME ON 22 JULY MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 JUL to 27 JUL
Class M80%70%60%
Class X25%20%20%
Proton35%35%25%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 JUL 225
  Predicted   25 JUL-27 JUL  220/210/205
  90 Day Mean        24 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  020/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  020/020-020/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 JUL to 27 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%25%13%
Major-severe storm12%12%06%

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