Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9077 (N18W21) PRODUCED AN M1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 15/0833Z. WHILE THE REGION HAS SHOWN SOME SLIGHT DECAY IN AREA, THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE REGION HAS MAINTAINED A COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS ALSO OCCURRED FROM REGION 9077 AND 9085 (N14E33). A TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 15/1433Z WITH NO X-RAY CORRELATION. THE TYPE II SPEED WAS 788 KM/S. NEW REGION 9089 (N18E41) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9077 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE SUDDEN STORM COMMENCMENT BEGAN AT 15/1440Z. THIS STORM IS RELATED TO THE X5/3B EVENT ON 14 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS SO FAR REACHED A PEAK OF 24000 PFU'S AT 15/1230Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT, STILL IN PROGRESS, HAS DECLINED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MODERATE (8.2 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE,WAS OBSERVED ON THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITOR. THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT BEGAN AT ABOUT 14/1041Z , PEAKED AT 49.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074), BEGINNING 15/1555Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS, AND THE HIGHER LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO START DECREASING ON THE SECOND DAY AND PREDOMINATELY RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 JUL 213
  Predicted   16 JUL-18 JUL  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        15 JUL 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  033/035
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  080/120
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  100/130-050/060-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%40%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm70%50%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%35%
Minor storm10%20%40%
Major-severe storm80%60%20%

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