Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, WITH THE LARGEST A C6/1N AT 0734Z FROM REGION 9070
(N19W11). REGION 9073 (S19E04) GREW SUBSTANTIALLY AND PRODUCED
FREQUENT SUBFLARES. REGION 9071 (N22W62), THE SITE OF 2 M-CLASS
FLARES YESTERDAY, WAS QUIET. THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS WITH THE
MOST RECENT ADDITION BEING REGION 9078 (S13E57).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9070 AND 9073 ARE THE PRIME SITES FOR CONTINUED
FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
A DISTURBANCE, DUE TO THE HALO CME THAT LEFT THE SUN ON 07 JULY, IS
EXPECTED ON 11 JULY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUL to 11 JUL
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 JUL 210 Predicted 09 JUL-11 JUL 215/220/225 90 Day Mean 08 JUL 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUL 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL 010/012-010/015-025/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUL to 11 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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