Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4 AT 1359Z. THE SOURCE OF THE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE BEHIND THE EAST LIMB, WHERE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ENHANCED X-RAY AND WHITE LIGHT EMISSION CONCURRENT WITH THE X-RAY BURSTS. THE DISK REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE. ONE NEW REGION, 9025 (N15W64), EMERGED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW REGION ON THE NE LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORM BROUGHT MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO MID-LATITUDES FROM 0300-0600Z. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW JUST ABOVE 500 KM/S. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SUBSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN LOCAL MIDNIGHT SECTORS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
Class M 10%20%30%
Class X 01%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 MAY 154
  Predicted    01 JUN-03 JUN  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        31 MAY 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  012/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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