Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4 AT 1359Z. THE SOURCE OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE BEHIND THE EAST LIMB, WHERE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE ENHANCED X-RAY AND WHITE LIGHT EMISSION CONCURRENT WITH THE
X-RAY BURSTS. THE DISK REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE. ONE NEW REGION,
9025 (N15W64), EMERGED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW REGION ON THE NE LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHORT-LIVED
SUBSTORM BROUGHT MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO MID-LATITUDES FROM
0300-0600Z. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW JUST ABOVE
500 KM/S. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS
HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SUBSTORMS MAY
OCCUR IN LOCAL MIDNIGHT SECTORS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 MAY 154 Predicted 01 JUN-03 JUN 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 31 MAY 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY 012/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN 010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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