Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A
GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS
THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z.
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL
REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER
FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A
MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS
REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL
M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE
DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT
ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 10 MAY to 12 MAY
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 MAY 150 Predicted 10 MAY-12 MAY 158/162/165 90 Day Mean 09 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY 007/008-018/015-030/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 MAY to 12 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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