Viewing archive of Monday, 8 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8990 (N13E49) BEGAN
TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL
LOW TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. A NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST
LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8991 (N16E70). OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, THERE WERE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FILAMENT ERUPTIONS FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. THESE FILAMENTS WERE LARGE AND
DENSE. A PARTIAL HALO WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH SPANNING
FROM SE60-NW10 AT AROUND 08/0700Z. ANOTHER MASS EJECTION, THAT MAY
ALSO BE A PARTIAL HALO EVENT, BECAME VISIBLE AROUND 08/1800Z IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8990 SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY
OF C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT
FROM EITHER REGION 8990 OR 8991.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 09-10 MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 11
MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 11
MAY FROM THE ERUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 MAY 137 Predicted 09 MAY-11 MAY 142/145/147 90 Day Mean 08 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY 005/008-005/008-018/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 02% | 20% |
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