Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE WAS A C9/1F
AT 16/1838UT IN REGION 8906 (S16W37). THIS REGION HAS DECAYED
FURTHER SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH IT STILL RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 8910 (N11E18) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MANAGED TO
GENERATE A C6/SF FLARE AT 18/1420UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8906 REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF M-CLASS
ACTIVITY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION.
C-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION
8910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 MAR 184 Predicted 17 MAR-19 MAR 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 16 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR 000/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR 001/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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