Viewing archive of Friday, 25 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF AT 25/0919Z FROM REGION 8888 (N36E43). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT BUT WAS DIRECTED OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. OTHER THAN THIS EVENT, THE REGION WAS MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8889 (N21E59) SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP AND PRODUCED SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A LARGE NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AT S13E72 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8891. THIS AREA WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WERE ALSO HIGH LATITUDE MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN TO MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8891, 8889, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, REGION 8888. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8891 AND 8889.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE 650 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH AROUND 25/1710Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING FOR 26 FEB. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE ON 27-28 FEB. QUIET TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 FEB 210
  Predicted   26 FEB-28 FEB  213/215/218
  90 Day Mean        25 FEB   165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB  020/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB  018/018-012/015-008/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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