Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/2147Z. THE FLARE WAS PROBABLY THE
SUPERPOSITION OF THREE EVENTS, A LONG DURATION C9 AND IMPULSIVE M1
AND C7 FLARES, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
BE SURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW NUMEROUS UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS FLARES AMIDST A BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX AVERAGING NEARLY C2.
THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8884 (S11W74), 8885 (N11W43),
AND 8886 (S14E31).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW, WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE. SOLAR
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IMAGERY FROM THE YOHKOH SOFT X-RAY TELESCOPE SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO
LARGE ACTIVE REGIONS WILL SOON BE ROTATING ONTO THE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE
FIELD INCREASED TO ACTIVE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
A CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION (CIR) SEEN IN ACE DATA. THIS CIR
BROUGHT INCREASED SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES AND MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH;
BZ FLUCTUATED WILDLY BETWEEN -15 AND 10 NT. THE CIR HERALDS THE
EXPECTED RETURN OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. ON THE THIRD DAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.
III. Event Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 FEB 185 Predicted 24 FEB-26 FEB 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 23 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB 020/023-020/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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