Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C2/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8858
(N27E40) WAS THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE SINCE PRODUCING THE X1/3B MAJOR FLARE
YESTERDAY. SOME NEW SPOTS WERE DETECTED BUT OVERALL, THE COMPLEXITY
AND SIZE REMAINS THE SAME. SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN
REGION 8861 (N07W27), WHICH PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN
REGION 8851 (N24W48). A PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ERUPTING OFF THE SE
LIMB AT 06/1650Z. NEW REGION 8862 (S04E75) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 RETAINS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
SMALL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR
STORMING PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD
START SUBSIDING LATE ON DAY ONE. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. MATERIAL FROM YESTERDAY'S
IMPRESSIVE X1/3B CORONAL MASS EJECTION ALL APPEARED TO BE EASTWARD
BOUND FROM ITS SOURCE NEAR THE NE LIMB AND WILL LIKELY NOT EFFECT
EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 FEB 178 Predicted 07 FEB-09 FEB 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 06 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB 010/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB 017/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB 015/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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