Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C2/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8858 (N27E40) WAS THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE SINCE PRODUCING THE X1/3B MAJOR FLARE YESTERDAY. SOME NEW SPOTS WERE DETECTED BUT OVERALL, THE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE REMAINS THE SAME. SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8861 (N07W27), WHICH PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN REGION 8851 (N24W48). A PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ERUPTING OFF THE SE LIMB AT 06/1650Z. NEW REGION 8862 (S04E75) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 RETAINS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL SMALL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORMING PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE ON DAY ONE. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. MATERIAL FROM YESTERDAY'S IMPRESSIVE X1/3B CORONAL MASS EJECTION ALL APPEARED TO BE EASTWARD BOUND FROM ITS SOURCE NEAR THE NE LIMB AND WILL LIKELY NOT EFFECT EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
Class M40%40%35%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 FEB 178
  Predicted   07 FEB-09 FEB  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        06 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB  017/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB  015/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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