Viewing archive of Friday, 7 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED WITH THE LARGEST A C5 AT 1740Z. THIS EVENT APPEARED TO
ORIGINATE FROM AN AREA NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LIMB SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH A
SF FLARE FROM REGION 8819 (N10W25). REGION 8819 WAS BY FAR THE MOST
ACTIVE DISK REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB CONTINUED TO BE THE SITE
OF SURGING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TWO RETURNING ACTIVE REGIONS ARE
DUE THERE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ELSEWHERE, ONE NEW REGION WAS
ASSIGNED, 8822 (N16E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THE PROSPECTS OF M-LEVEL EVENTS MAY INCREASE, PENDING WHAT RETURNS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL. ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF AS A CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JAN to 10 JAN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 JAN 150 Predicted 08 JAN-10 JAN 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 07 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN 015/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN 010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JAN to 10 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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