Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL MINOR OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN
18 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED AROUND 01/1407Z FROM NEAR S39W59. THE
FOUR SPOT REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK EXHIBITED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
EFFECTS FROM THE CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM THAT BEGAN ON 30
DEC CONTINUED THIS PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY
TWO. EXPECT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY DAY THREE AS THIS DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO WANE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 JAN to 04 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 JAN 130 Predicted 02 JAN-04 JAN 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 01 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 DEC 020/027 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JAN 028/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JAN-04 JAN 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 JAN to 04 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 65% | 65% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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