Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8806
(N19W01) PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE LARGEST
EVENT, A C3/SF AT 1955Z. THE REGION WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS: THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS PREDOMINANTLY BIPOLAR,
BUT THERE IS A PENUMBRAL AREA IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GROUP THAT
IS CLOSE TO A DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8798 (S14W59) CONTINUES
TO BE THE OTHER LARGE GROUP ON THE DISK BUT ONLY PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, WITH REGIONS 8806 AND 8798 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES.
THERE IS A CONTINUED FAIR CHANCE FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8806 DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 DEC to 26 DEC
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 DEC 198 Predicted 24 DEC-26 DEC 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 23 DEC 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC 001/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC 002/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 DEC to 26 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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