Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE ISOLATED
M1/SN EVENT FROM REGION 8791 (S14E53) AT 07/2120UT. ONLY INFREQUENT
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NEW REGION
8792 (N17E69) WAS NUMBERED DURING THIS PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. EIT IMAGES FROM
THE SOHO SPACECRAFT SHOW LARGE AREAS OF ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
LIMB. AS THESE ACTIVE REGIONS BEGIN TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK LOOK FOR
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD
(08/06-09UT) OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FOR
THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 DEC 150 Predicted 09 DEC-11 DEC 165/180/190 90 Day Mean 08 DEC 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC 008/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC 015/018-012/015-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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