Viewing archive of Friday, 19 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8773 (S14E39) WAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8771 (S15E28). TWO OTHER SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8774 (N22E69) AND REGION 8775 (S17W18). A LARGE FILAMENT/PROMINENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS ERUPTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. MAJOR FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8765 (S12 W34), REGION 8766 (N17 W11), AND REGION 8771 (S15E28).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS BASICALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTELED TO ACTIVE. THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOLAR WIND WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 NOV 210
  Predicted   20 NOV-22 NOV  205/200/200
  90 Day Mean        19 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV  020/020-015/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%20%
Minor storm20%25%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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