Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME OF THE LARGEST REGIONS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE, THE SUN HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY QUIET. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A M1/1F FROM REGION 8771 (S14E46). REGION 8765 (S12W20), NOW APPROACHING 1300 MILLIONTHS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AND CONTAINS AT LEAST ONE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8772 (NO5E71) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. MOST OF THE REGIONS NOW VISIBLE ON THE SUN HAVE EITHER PRODUCED M FLARES OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SUSPECTED CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 NOV 218
  Predicted   19 NOV-21 NOV  210/200/200
  90 Day Mean        18 NOV 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  011/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  020/020-020/020-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%40%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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