Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THIS WAS DUE TO AN M5.9/1N
EVENT FROM REGION 8674 (S25E48) AT 21/2213UT. REGION 8674 WAS THE
SOURCE OF ALMOST ALL OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD INCLUDING
SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP (400 KM/S) AT
22/1413UT. REGION 8668 (N23W36) PRODUCED A SINGLE OPTICAL SUBFLARE
AT 22/1123UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 23 AUG to 25 AUG
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 AUG 173 Predicted 23 AUG-25 AUG 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 22 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 AUG to 25 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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