Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8645 (S28W78) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1623Z ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8647 (S19W87) PRODUCED
ISOLATED SUBFLARES AND DISPLAYED NEAR CONTINUOUS SURGING AS IT BEGAN
CROSSING THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8651 (N26W44) WAS STABLE AS IT
CONTINUED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW
REGION 8661 (S14E01) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONS 8645
AND 8647 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES AS THEY DEPART THE
VISIBLE DISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 AUG to 08 AUG
| Class M | 70% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 AUG 177 Predicted 06 AUG-08 AUG 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 05 AUG 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 AUG to 08 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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